The Setting: 2020–2025

Inflation does not move in isolation.

It reacts to:

  • Policy frameworks
  • Institutional credibility
  • External shocks
  • Currency regime mechanics

The period from February 2020 to December 2025 is not arbitrary.

It represents a complete macroeconomic cycle.

1. Why February 2020?

The dataset begins in February 2020 for three reasons:

  1. It is the first month where both FX and CPI data align cleanly.
  2. It avoids transition noise from the 2019 presidential inauguration.
  3. It captures the beginning of the COVID shock phase.

Mauritania confirmed its first COVID-19 case on 13 March 2020.

This marks the first global macro shock inside the sample window.

2. A Presidency in Three Acts

This period unfolds across three distinct institutional phases.

These phases matter because inflation behavior is shaped by policy coordination.

Act I — Crisis Management (2020–2022)

Prime Minister: Mohamed Ould Bilal
Central Bank Governor: Cheikh El Kebir (until 2022)

Characteristics:

  • COVID economic contraction
  • Global supply chain disruption
  • Food and fuel price volatility
  • Managed exchange rate approach
  • BCM absorbing FX shocks

Inflation during this phase:

  • Moderate in 2020–2021
  • Rapid acceleration in 2022
  • Peak annual inflation above 9%

This is the stress phase.

Shocks did not fade quickly.

They lingered.

Act II — Structural Pivot (2022–2024)

Central Bank Governor: Mohamed Lamine Ould Dhehbi (from April 2022)

Institutional shift:

  • Strengthening of monetary transmission
  • Gradual transition toward auction-based FX pricing
  • 2023 multi-price FX platform introduction
  • Increased interbank participation

This period includes:

  • Global commodity spike (Ukraine war)
  • 2022 inflation breach above 9%
  • Beginning of disinflation in 2023

Inflation becomes volatile.

Persistence increases.

This is the amplification regime.

Act III — Technocratic Consolidation (2024–2025)

President re-elected: 29 June 2024
Prime Minister: Mokhtar Ould Djay (August 2024)

Institutional signals:

  • Administrative streamlining
  • Digital governance expansion
  • Gas export phase begins (April 2025)

During this period:

  • Inflation falls sharply
  • Volatility stabilizes
  • Exchange rate fluctuations become less contagious

This is the absorber regime.

Shocks begin to fade rather than multiply.

3. Candidate Structural Break Dates

The following dates are treated as regime markers in charts:

  • March 2020 — COVID arrival
  • August 2020 — PM Mohamed Ould Bilal appointed
  • April 2022 — New BCM Governor
  • 2023 — FX auction platform modernization
  • June 2024 — Presidential re-election
  • August 2024 — PM Mokhtar Ould Djay appointed
  • April 2025 — First GTA gas exports

These are not assumed to cause changes.

They are anchors used to interpret shifts in statistical relationships.

4. The Core Behavioral Question

The central question of this report is not:

“Was inflation high?”

The question is:

Did the structure of inflation change?

Specifically:

  • Did inflation become less sensitive to FX shocks?
  • Did inflation lose its memory?
  • Did volatility become less contagious?

The next sections move from narrative to measurement.